Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 11.811567 13.254528 14.906489 16.961594 19.484375 22.528066 26.555143
2024-11-03 11.072068 13.132458 15.713128 19.280226 24.254596 31.245231 42.454539
2024-11-10 10.188415 12.527901 15.639901 20.275752 27.401135 38.773104 60.619370
2024-11-17 8.963568 11.245780 14.387260 19.278699 27.265137 41.133682 71.546804
2024-11-24 8.259557 10.560237 13.831997 19.151847 28.388214 45.948172 90.934346
2024-12-01 7.645676 9.921449 13.242604 18.836722 29.065910 50.144454 113.017141
2024-12-08 7.195854 9.467824 12.865245 18.785697 30.184204 55.736509 146.635074
2024-12-15 6.875892 9.171289 12.688221 19.033051 31.929945 63.679734 204.631974
2024-12-22 6.444432 8.667776 12.125664 18.500897 31.920456 67.114322 252.114520
2024-12-29 6.158399 8.364884 11.858036 18.468990 32.997975 74.340281 352.779017
2025-01-05 5.783141 7.896185 11.273208 17.755243 32.343303 75.839316 420.030721
2025-01-12 5.409936 7.409603 10.623576 16.845366 31.052043 74.664488 459.691943
2025-01-19 5.060997 6.958399 10.029518 16.038284 30.011555 74.548572 532.626310
2025-01-26 5.199255 7.297667 10.826077 18.148295 37.063287 113.280769 3778.546927
2025-02-02 5.137809 7.302277 11.027961 19.053269 41.292338 148.328296 NaN
2025-02-09 4.844229 6.899087 10.449710 18.145487 39.728221 147.017594 NaN
2025-02-16 4.674442 6.696783 10.230444 18.029835 40.695470 165.221576 NaN
2025-02-23 4.497147 6.471938 9.952170 17.742408 41.026377 180.095107 NaN
2025-03-02 4.361451 6.311507 9.784549 17.695847 42.199050 205.972872 NaN
2025-03-09 4.265827 6.215221 9.732508 17.921507 44.468105 251.923889 NaN
2025-03-16 4.099719 5.987344 9.408681 17.435849 43.887607 263.391938 NaN
2025-03-23 3.992291 5.858309 9.271674 17.406708 45.137680 307.634673 NaN
2025-03-30 3.827439 5.620645 8.905602 16.754228 43.655727 304.043482 NaN